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中国消费者购买力日益增强

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Rahul Chadha, co-chief investment officer for Hong Kong-based Mirae Asset Global Investments, has a few charts he is particularly fond of when it comes to telling a story about investing in China.
在讲述在华投资的故事时,有几张图表是总部位于香港的未来资产(Mirae Asset Global Investments)的联合首席投资官拉胡尔?查达(Rahul Chadha)特别喜欢的。
One shows income growth in China. Based on the current rate of expansion, he expects the world’s second-biggest economy will achieve high income status — defined as income of almost $12,500 per capita — in eight years.
一张显示了中国的收入增速。他预测,根据目前的增长速度,世界第二大经济体将在8年后达到高收入级别,人均收入达到近1.25万美元。
The second shows a ratio of household debt to gross domestic product for a number of countries. For thrifty mainland China households, the ratio is 28 per cent. That compares to India at one end of the scale at 15 per cent and the UK at the other with 90 per cent.
第二张图表显示了多个国家的家庭债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比。对于节俭的中国内地家庭而言,这个比率为28%。最低比率为印度(15%),最高为英国(90%)。
So, based on their income and potential to borrow, the Chinese have spending power and the potential to increase it. The growing muscle of Chinese consumers is not, of course, a new investment theme when it comes to Asia.
因此,根据收入和借款潜力,中国人拥有购买力,以及增加购买力的潜力。当然,就亚洲而言,中国消费者的底气日益增强并非一个新的投资主题。
But at a time when wage growth is muted in other large economies, such as the US and the eurozone, the situation in China is surprisingly overlooked rather than celebrated.
但是,在其他大型经济体(例如美国和欧元区)薪资增速放缓之际,中国的情况被人忽视,而没有得到欢呼,这一点令人意外。
Disposable income per household in China rose 7.3 per cent in real terms in the first half of this year. That surpasses the 6.9 per cent pace at which the economy expanded in the period.
今年上半年,中国家庭实际可支配收入增长7.3%,超过了同期经济扩张速度(6.9%)。
Moreover, the number of jobs created in urban areas came in at 8.55m in the first seven months of 2017, according to data from JPMorgan, not too far from the year-end target of 11m. In sharp contrast, India is generating roughly 1m jobs a year at a time when it needs to fashion 10 times more to absorb the youth streaming in from the countryside in search of a better living.
另外,根据摩根大通(JPMorgan)的数据,今年头7个月,中国城镇的新增就业为855万,距离全年1100万的目标不是太远。与此形成鲜明对比的是,印度每年的新增就业约为100万,而该国需要把这个数字增加10倍,才能吸收从农村到城市寻找更美好生活的年轻人。
It’s not just the level of income that is improving in China. Its distribution is too. The government is spending more on a social safety net, and provides more by way of pensions and medicines, including medical care and education.
在中国,不只是收入水平得到改善。收入分配也在改善。政府的社保支出在增加,通过养老金、医疗和教育来分配更多经济果实。
“In a way this is catch up,” Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan, says of the income growth in China. “In a way it reflects the fact that the working age population is declining. But for the past 10 years income is going up for the majority of people steadily and gradually.”
“从某种程度来说,这是在追赶,”摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席中国经济学家朱海斌在谈到中国的收入增长时表示,“从某种程度上,这反映出工作年龄人口在减少。但过去10年,大多数人的收入在逐渐而稳步地上涨。”
It’s an especially notable achievement given that some of the other forces at work in the Chines economy are far from helpful. The expansion of the sharing economy and ever growing role of technology across most sectors is ultimately deflationary. Automation is increasingly displacing manufacturing jobs. At the same time, sophisticated computers are now eliminating low end service jobs.
鉴于中国经济中的其他一些因素并不是那么有利,这一成就尤其引人注目。共享经济的扩张以及多数行业中科技的作用日益增强,最终将产生通缩影响。自动化正越来越多地取代制造业岗位。同时,先进的电脑现在开始淘汰低端服务业岗位。
As investors survey the effects of income growth, it is the new economy, with its emphasis on services and consumption, and private companies in it, that are the beneficiaries as they cater to the appetites of a growing middle class.
在投资者审视收入增长的影响时,注重服务和消费的新经济以及该板块的民营企业成为受益者,因为它们满足日益壮大的中产阶层的需求。
Mr Chadha, for example, is a fan of companies such as Ctrip, an online travel app, healthcare, insurers such as Ping An, (rather than the state owned behemoths) and internet and ecommerce firms. Ctrip for example has 75 per cent market share in online travel.
例如,查达钟爱在线旅游应用携程(Ctrip)等公司、医疗公司、平安等保险公司(而非国有保险巨擘)以及互联网和电商集团。例如,携程占据了在线旅游市场75%的份额。
中国消费者购买力日益增强.jpgThese trends carry risks — and the biggest lies in Beijing. The government expects the rapidly growing, but still insecure, icons of the new economy to do their national service alongside state-owned enterprises.
这些趋势带有风险,最大的风险在于中国政府。中国政府期望快速增长但仍无保障的新经济偶像与国有企业一道为国家效力。
That was evident a few weeks ago when Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent Holdings all wrote cheques to telecoms company Unicom and China Life as part of a plan to diversify the ownership of the state owned groups.
几周前,这一点很明显,当时阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、百度(Baidu)和腾讯(Tencent)都认购了联通(Unicom)和中国人寿(China Life)的股份,作为国有集团所有权多元化计划的一部分。
So far authorities in Beijing have been judicious in how they lean on these fast-growing, disruptive companies and, more broadly, how they leverage the private sector generally.
迄今为止,对于如何依赖这些迅速增长的颠覆性企业以及(在更广义的层面)如何利用民营领域,中国官方还是比较有分寸的。
As household incomes continue to grow, investors must hope that Beijing’s attitude to the companies of the new economy remains relatively benign.
随着家庭收入持续增长,投资者肯定希望中国政府对新经济公司的态度保持相对仁慈。
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